The first point to make clear - this is all predicated on the unwritten rule that Wordle will never use a word more than once. I don’t think that’s an official rule though.
Supposedly Wordle has a database of 2309 words (pre-New York Times takeover) to choose from (out of around 13,000 English five letter words). That means, if they never repeat a word, the game will be done in October of 2027. Reusing words would avoid that deadline (as would allowing more of those 13,000 words).
In any case, I think it’s fair to assume words aren’t going to be repeated in the near future, so it’s worth my time doing a test.
Now that a bit over 700 of those 2309 words have been used, I was curious how many times my recent guesses were words that’d already been used, and thus, were doomed and had no chance of being that day’s word. I didn’t count my start word (I have several that I use, and I’ve verified that none of them have been used - no way I want to jeopardize my 1/6 chances), and I didn’t count the second guess if it was following a first guess whiff, since that guess is going to be an alternative start word, and of course, I didn’t count the final word. So for a 4/6, there were (usually) two guesses that were potentially previously used words.
The pink cells are already used words. The green ones are start words.
I went back two months and looked at my guesses (I’ve taken a screenshot of every day’s play since back in July of 2022), made a spreadsheet, and then checked to see how many of the guesses were doomed.
From April 24th, FIFTY (which gave me an I) and PINTO (which gave me an O) had already been used.
Important point: Doomed guesses are still useful, and I would still happily use a doomed word if I couldn’t think of anything else and thought it might provide some help.
Out of my last 58 plays, there ended up being 123 possible guesses that may have been doomed (an average of 2.3 per day). An astonishing 40 of those 123 were indeed doomed words - words that had no chance of being that day’s word. Basically, a third of my non-start-word guesses were doomed.
I have a spreadsheet where I track the previously used words, so theoretically, I could check each word before I entered it. The problem is that I’m lazy, and just won’t do that (with one exception). I don’t really think doing that is cheating - it’s just being willing to put in extra time and effort. My goal is to finish the day’s game quickly - I will gladly trade a 3/6 that takes 15 minutes for a 4/6 that takes 7 minutes.
Oh, and about that one exception; over the last two months, I’ve twice ended up with an X/6. That’s usually due to a “there are too many options” situation. If I’m on the sixth guess and I can think of more than one potential word, I think it’s worth the effort to verify that the word you are entering isn’t doomed. This would have helped me in one of those X/6 cases, and been worth the trouble.
In this X/6 from May 11th that still gives me nightmares, TROVE, DROLL, FROCK, and AROMA had all already been used.
Every day another words gets used. As more words get used, the chances of your guesses being doomed go up.
Go AHEAD and play as USUAL, be BRAVE, don't get UPSET or ANGRY, and have no UNDUE WORRY - ENJOY the HAVOC and WHOOP with GLORY! Maybe even GLOAT with a bit of FLAIR.
That’s it - move along…
PS: I have a shared Numbers spreadsheet that I keep updated with past words (I update it a day late so it won’t give away that day’s word). It also includes a chart to shows the popularity of each letter (which can be useful when working out your guesses). Feel free to look at it here: https://www.icloud.com/numbers/05dIazj8r27ioSxEVwvGKPuiw#Wordle_Words_-_Shared
This has been a pretty epic winter with respect to the rain and snow California has received. The ski areas are talking about staying open into July. Reservoirs are filling to levels unseen in years. People that sell tire chains are buying summer homes in Santa Barbara.
All of that means that Yosemite waterfalls should be amazing. Which means MANY people want to witness those waterfalls, so finding someplace to stay in the valley can be challenging.
A friend of Mrs Notthat books a set of rooms a year in advance with the intent of her family gathering there. That did not work out this year though, and Mrs jumped at the chance to take a couple of the rooms - one for us for seven nights starting on a Monday and one for our son and his wife for three nights starting on the following Friday.
Upper and Lower Yosemite Falls were very perky.
We stayed at the Yosemite Lodge and were treated to the roaring noise of the falls, which was especially noticeable at night once everything else quieted down. (We walked over to look at them at dusk that first day and turned back as, while we still weren't that close to the viewing area, we were already getting very wet and cold from the spray. We bravely went up to the viewing area the next day though. Here is a video.)
On Tuesday morning, we woke up to being told that the valley area was closing and we would have to leave on Thursday due to forecasted flooding. As we were scrambling to figure out what to do, the park updated the closure to be on Friday instead.
In our door later in the day. It would have been really easy to not know about the upcoming closure.
After some phone calls with the kids, it was decided to stay at a place, Evergreen Lodge, that claims to be near Groveland but is actually about halfway to Hetch Hetchy reservoir. More about that later.
So Mrs and I still had four days to explore the area, and we explored all we could.
Bridalvale Falls as seen from the Tunnel View area. The rainbow was a bonus.
The weather was reasonably cool, but sunny and dry - I don't remember seeing a cloud during our stay there. But man, we saw waterfalls. Every. Where. You. Looked.
Some of the waterfalls weren't huge, and most are temporary, but they were still awesome.
Seriously, after a while you just stopped taking pictures of them since there were so many and you couldn't remember if you had already captured that one or not.
The valley meadows were astonishingly soggy.
All of the trails that headed out of the valley were pretty much closed. We were able to hike to Mirror Lake and to the Vernal Falls viewing bridge, but that was about all that was available (other than the valley trails, some of which were under water).
The only snow in the valley were the piles left over from the snowplows. Some piles were sadder than others.
Mrs Notthat taking in Upper Mirror Lake. Last summer this was all dry and we could walk across the lake bottom.
Some valley trails required swimming skills.
Hiking up the Mist trail to see Vernal Falls.
By Thursday, it was warming up a bit, although that just meant mid-60s here. But the sun felt really intense if you were getting directly hit by it.
The Mist Trail closure point, just after the John Muir Trail split off.
A water level measuring station on the Merced River along the Mist Trail. The water still had a LONG ways to go to reach flood stage.
The dogwood trees were getting fresh foliage, but were not blooming. As a spoiler, when we came back on Sunday, they were blooming like crazy.
A waterfall that goes under the Big Oak Flat Road.
A lot of people left the valley on Thursday, either because they made arrangements before we were given Friday, or because they wanted to avoid the imminent apocalypse, which really reduced the crowds. On Friday, it was our turn to head out of the valley. Everything indicated that it was going to be closed at least until the middle of next week, so we took our time going out on Big Oak Flat Road.
Mrs Notthat trying to find the Tuolumne Grove Trail. It was there somewhere.
Eating lunch at the Merced Grove trailhead.
Letting Mrs' car touch snow.
Our son doing unplanned vehicle maintenance.
The road to where we were staying next, Evergreen Lodge, is the same road you take if you want to drive out to the Hetch Hetchy reservoir dam (which is part of Yosemite Park). It is not a wide road, or a particularly well maintained road. Sadly, the kid's vehicle managed to let the hook end of a broken bungee cord that was laying in the road penetrate the sidewall of a tire.
(Truly sad thing: The kids were fighting Friday afternoon traffic and were going to be late, so we stopped and had dinner in Groveland. While we were having dinner, unbeknownst to us, they went past and were now ahead of us. Until the bungee cord stopped them. We were so focussed on trying to find this place and not get run off the road that we actually drove right past them as they were changing the tire, and didn't see them. They saw us though. Note that cell service is mostly non-existent around here, so there was no way to communicate.)
The closest place to get a replacement tire was in Sonora, which wasn't that far away, mileage wise, but was about 90 minutes away, time wise. It's not a bad place to kill some time though, and it was amusing to keep confusing Sonora with Sonoma.
Then the unexpected happened - Yosemite Park realized that the flooding danger was not actually materializing, and they would open the valley to day use visitors on Sunday! So the kids would get to see the waterfalls after all!
Viewing the Lower Yosemite Falls, but with a lot fewer people around.
On Monday, it was time to head home. Mrs Notthat and I decided to go up to Hetch Hetchy to see what it was like since we had never been there before.
It was pretty awesome.
It is not very developed - there are no hotels or restaurants and only one bathroom, but there is a dam, a lot of water, some waterfalls, and trails.
Looking at the dam spilling out water.
Three different waterfalls visible from the dam.
A different view of the water gushing out. Normally they would not be doing this, but this year they need to make room for all the snowmelt that's coming. Also, note that staircase coming down the dam - there is no way you could talk me into getting on that.
If you walk across the dam, you can go through this tunnel to a trail that leads to the waterfalls.
On the other side of the tunnel, the trail leads to the waterfalls. Sadly, we didn't have time to walk all the way out there, so we will have to come back and do that.
Going back through the tunnel. Note the large puddle - you could mostly get around it if you tried pretty hard.
And that's about it. We had to roll with the punches a bit, but it was still a great trip. (A few days after we left, the park had to close a portion of the Big Oak Flat Road since the hillside is sliding downhill and taking some of the road with it. I promise this isn't my fault. Probably.)
Most of the valley was open during the week we were there, including the shuttle busses and bike rentals.
For food:
The Base Camp Eatery at Yosemite Lodge was pretty underwhelming with choices (and they now use a system where you order and pay at kiosks). This will likely get better as the summer gets closer. Hopefully.
The Mountain Room Restaurant was open, but if you did as told and tried to book a table online, you would be told you would have to wait until 9:30, which was not true - you really need to make the reservation in person. (They would say they were full but there would be lots of empty tables - I think "full" was based on the amount of staff on hand, which will get better as we get closer to summer.) The food was excellent there.
The Meadow Grill in Curry Village is now taco-based! The tacos were small, but were pretty good.
The Ahwahnee dining room appears to be closed for seismic retrofitting. We had lunch at the Ahwahnee Bar and it was very good.
One of the things we did several times was just grab a sandwich or, at the store in Yosemite Village, a warm burrito from the back (think truck stop hot food), which were all plenty good.
For the first time, we walked around the cemetery and the Indian Cultural Exhibit.
As far as the Evergreen Lodge, it's pretty remote, but pretty nice. We had no cell service there, but really good wifi. (Wifi at the Yosemite Lodge was very underwhelming, but we at least had a small cell signal.) The rooms are all in cabins - some are single cabins while others are duplexes. There is a restaurant, a bar, a gift shop (with sandwiches, coffee, and, well, gifts), and several fun playgrounds with short zip lines for the kids. You can also camp there - they have tents set up with sleeping bags ready to go! There is a heated pool, hot tub, and rec room, along with a disc golf area, bocce, and horseshoes. The rooms do not have TVs.
It is not cheap though - our cabin (a duplex shared with the kids) was about the same as a room in Yosemite Lodge, which is also wildly not cheap.
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